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Tuesday, May 26, 2020

Oil Demand News

Source: BIMCO, Clarksons

BIMCO Tanker Rate Analysis: Reality Kicks In, Rates Fall

Tanker shipping: sky high freight rates replaced by reality of falling global oil demandGeopolitical tensions have now eased, leaving freight rates to feel the full effects of the weak underlying market and falling demand. Tanker shipping looks set to be under pressure for the rest of the year.Demand drivers and freight ratesThe tanker shipping industry was once again caught in a whirlwind, as freight rates skyrocketed with little regard to the poor market fundamentals before the latter once again caught up with rates.

Source: BIMCO

BIMCO: 2020 and the Collapse of Bunker Fuel Markets

The sulfur regulation from the International Maritime Organization (IMO) that came into force on 1 January 2020 took the center stage in the shipping industry at outset of the new decade. Four months on, the spotlights have turned to the coronavirus and the OPEC+ oil price war.The outlook for global economic growth remains bleak as the world is faced with the largest recession since the Great Depression in the 1930s.Commodity prices have declined across the board and most recently…

© Igor Groshev / Adobe Stock

China's Commodity Imports Remain Robust

The new coronavirus caused barely a blip in China's imports of major commodities, but this likely underscores the ways China differs from the rest of the world, rather than providing a template for the globe's recovery from the pandemic.China's crude oil imports in March, the month when much of the world's second-largest economy was in lockdown, were equivalent to 9.68 million barrels per day (bpd), according to official customs data released on Tuesday.That's 4.5% higher than…

© Igor Yu. Groshev / Adobe Stock

BIMCO Revises 2020 Forecast

The coronavirus pandemic is impacting global shipping demand for 2020 negatively. The speed of the virus spread makes it difficult to assess the full consequences. Nevertheless, we see a need to update our 2020 forecast to make some of this massive uncertainty tangible.What is going on in addition to the coronavirus pandemic?Geopolitical tensions that made the OPEC+ alliance break down, has subsequently made the crude oil tanker spot freight market erupt. The events that followed the breakdown - and those that are likely to follow…

Image: VesselsValue

VesselsValue Warning on Tanker Market

According to VesselsValue, the recent events have resulted in an increasingly pessimistic short term outlook for the Tanker market, after a positive autumn and winter."In short, factors contributing to supply growth and demand constriction have combined to bring down Tanker rates," it said.Last summer, the US put sanctions on a number of Chinese Tanker owners. Due to the opaque ownership structures of the fleets, charterers stayed well clear of any vessel possibly related, thus…

Ports in Singapore have started screening inbound travelers on passenger and commercial vessels for coronavirus symptoms (© hit1912 / Adobe Stock)

Coronavirus Places Shipping on High Alert

The Wuhan coronavirus outbreak has placed the shipping industry on high alert amid a rising death toll in China and reports that the fast-spreading illness is reaching new shores.The flu-like coronavirus, first identified in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China on December 31, has killed more than two dozen people in China and is believed to have infected more than 900 worldwide, according to several media reports. Cases have been confirmed in Beijing, Shanghai and Guangdong, and internationally in travelers returning from China to Japan…

AdobeStock / © Rawf8

Oil surges as China Pushes Tariff Rollbacks

Oil prices rose more than 1% on Tuesday on hopes for a U.S.-China trade agreement and optimism that Washington could roll back some tariffs on Chinese imports.Brent crude futures rose 74 cents, or 1.2%, to $62.87 a barrel by 12:56 p.m. EST (1756 GMT). U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures rose 68 cents, or 1.2%, to $57.22 a barrel.China is pushing U.S. President Donald Trump to remove more tariffs imposed in September as part of a so-called Phase 1 deal, which would…

© PhotoGranary/AdobeStock

Iranian Tanker Hit by Missiles, Oil Rises

Oil prices jumped more than 2% on Friday, October 11, 2019, after Iranian media said a state-owned oil tanker had been struck by missiles in the Red Sea near Saudi Arabia, raising the prospect of supply disruptions weeks after attacks on Saudi oil plants.The Suezmax crude tanker Sabiti was ablaze and suffered heavy damage after being hit by two missiles, Iranian media reported.Both oil benchmarks recorded their biggest daily rise since Sept. 16, the first trading day after the…

The latest oil production data from China has eased concerns over oil prices which increased slightly during the past month. 

(Photo © Adobe Stock / chagpg)

Oil Prices: Chinese Data Eases Concerns

Oil prices rose today (Monday, September 30) after China’s factories unexpectedly increased production over the past month, easing concerns about demand amid the ongoing trade war with the U.S. Brent crude futures rose 9 cents to $62 a barrel by 0300 GMT and U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures rose 13 cents to $56.04 a barrel.The Caixin/Markit Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for September increase for the second month in a row as Chinese factories increased production and new orders rose ahead of market expectations…

Image: DNV GL

Natural Gas to be 29% of World’s Energy Supply by 2050

The global oil demand will peak in the mid-2020s and gas demand will keep rising to 2033, says DNV GL.Gas demand will then plateau, and the fuel will remain dominant until the end of the forecast period in 2050, when it will account for over 29% of the world’s energy supply, it said.Significant investment will be required to ensure production meets demand, including realising the potential from stranded gas reserves and for reserve replacement. DNV GL forecasts global upstream gas capital expenditure to reach USD 737 billion (bn) in 2025…

File Image: AdobeStock / © Carabay

McQuilling Mid-Year Tanker Market Outlook

McQuilling Services Announces the Release of the 2019 Mid-Year Tanker Market Outlook Update.The Mid-Year Tanker Market Outlook Update provides an outlook on the global tanker market in the context of global economic growth and oil fundamentals influencing tanker demand and vessel supply. The outlook includes a view on future asset values, time charter rates, market freight rates and TCE revenues for 24 major tanker trades and four triangulated routes across eight vessel segments for the second half of 2019 through the remaining four years of the forecast period 2019-2023.

Adobestock / © rawf8

Trade Fears Drag Stocks, Yuan at 10-Year Low

NEW YORK, Aug 5 (Reuters) - Stock markets around the world fell hard on Monday on fears that China's willingness to let the yuan slide in response to the latest U.S. tariff threat could further aggravate trade-related tensions between the world's two largest economies.China on Monday let the yuan tumble beyond the 7-per-dollar level for the first time in more than a decade, in a sign Beijing might be willing to tolerate further currency weakness after U.S. President Donald Trump vowed last week to impose 10% tariffs on the remaining $300 billion of Chinese imports from Sept.

AdobeStock / © Kasto

Oil slumps 7% as More Tariffs Loom

Oil prices plummeted more than 7% on Thursday, with the U.S. benchmark posting its worst day in more than four years, after President Donald Trump said he would impose additional tariffs Chinese imports starting Sept. 1.The drop in Brent crude was the steepest in more than three years, undoing a fragile oil rally built on steady drawdowns in U.S. inventories even as global demand looked shaky due to the U.S.-China trade dispute.Trump's announcement of an additional 10% levy on…

Chart: BIMCO

BIMCO: VLCC Freight Rates from Gulf to China Doubles

VLCC spot freight rates between the Arabian Gulf and China rose 101% in the days between June 13, 2019 and June 20, 2019, in the aftermath of attacks on two tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. Spot freight rates for a VLCC, carrying 2 million barrels of oil, between the Arabian Gulf and China reached USD 25,994 per day on June 20, their highest level since March and significantly above the May average of USD 9,979 per day.Despite this increase, freight rates on this route only narrowly exceeds the daily break-even costs of a VLCC…

File Image of the port of Hong Kong / CREDIT Adobestock © Marco 2811

Fitch Ratings: Demand Risks Weigh on Global Shipping Sector Outlook

The global shipping sector outlook remains negative reflecting the demand-side risks of protectionism and slower economic growth, Fitch Ratings says. Higher fuel costs and sulphur regulation will also put pressure on shippers.Partly offsetting an unfavourable environment are emerging signs of better capacity management by shipping companies, which is key to a sustainable balance and freight rates that support consistent profitability. We expect better fundamentals in container and dry bulk…

Image: Tsakos Energy Navigation

TEN: Cautious Optimism on Shipping Market

The provider of seaborne crude oil and petroleum product transportation services Tsakos Energy Navigation Limited (TEN) said that though the tanker market showed upward trajectory, management will keep a close eye on developments and refine its employment approach.The Greece-based tanker company said in a stock exchange annoucement that "As we approach the end of 2018, the signs that the worst is behind are becoming increasingly evident. Global oil demand is continuing its upward…

© christian42 / Adobe Stock

How Refiners Plan to Grapple With Fuel Oil Output After 2020

High-sulphur fuel oil (HSFO), essentially the leftovers of an oil refiner's output, will still flow from refineries around the world even after new rules start up in 2020 curtailing its use in the global shipping fleet, a Reuters survey showed.Sixty percent of the 33 refineries contacted by Reuters in a global survey will still produce HSFO in 2020 although the supply will tighten as 70 percent of these refiners plan to reduce their output.Starting that year, ships will have to use marine fuel…

© Thor Jorgen Udvang / Adobe Stock

Tanker Market Grappling with More Uncertainty

Tanker shipping: Added uncertainty is not helpful to the struggling tankersDemandJust when you thought it could not get any worse for the tanker shipping industry, the U.S. is reimposing sanctions on Iran coming into force after a six months wind-down period ending on November 4, 2018. The immediate effects are less tangible but sure to add more uncertainty to the whole shipping industry that has plenty of uncertainty to deal with already.At the same time, freight rates for both crude oil tankers and oil product tankers are mostly in loss making territory.

© natagolubnycha / Adobe Stock

2020 Low-sulfur Rule to Trigger Huge Disruptions -IEA

The shipping industry and oil refineries are not doing enough to prepare for new rules cutting the amount of sulfur that vessels can emit from 2020, according to the head of the International Energy Agency's (IEA) oil industry and market division.The new rules drastically cut the amount of sulfur that the world's ships can emit, from 3.5 percent currently to just 0.5 percent. Ships that install "scrubbers" that remove sulfur as the fuel is burned can continue to use higher sulfur fuels…

© Igor Groshev / Adobe Stock

S.Korea Fuel Oil Imports Soar

South Korea's move to shut coal-fired generators to control air pollution at the same time as nuclear reactors are going into scheduled maintenance is resulting in surging fuel oil imports, as utilities burn the dirty feedstock to meet power demand. South Korea's trade ministry said in February it would suspend five coal-fired power plants, with a combined capacity of 2.32 gigawatts (GW), from March to June, part of a broad campaign to reduce pollution. That plan may backfire, at least in the short-term.

© Raja Stills / Adobe Stock

India's Oil Imports Reach Record High in January

India imported a record 4.93 million barrels of oil per day (bpd) in January to feed its expanded refining capacity and meet rising demand, ship tracking data obtained from sources and data compiled by Thomson Reuters Oil Research & Forecasts showed. The world's third-biggest oil importer shipped in 13.6 percent more oil in January than a year earlier and about 12.5 percent more than the previous month, the data showed. Imports in January were high as state-run refiners, which operate two-third of India's nearly 5 million bpd capacity…

© rob3rt82 / Adobe Stock

Frontline CEO: Scrapping to Lift 2018 Tanker Rates

Oil tanker firm Frontline expects shipping firms to scrap more old vessels in the time ahead, which may lead to a recovery in rates for the remaining global fleet in the second half of 2018, its chief executive told Reuters on Monday. Spot rates for very large crude carriers (VLCCs), with a capacity of to transport 260,000 tonnes of oil, have recently dropped to a loss-making $13,000-14,000 per day, far below Frontline's cash break even rate of $21,600. Spot rates for the smaller Suezmax vessels are also below Frontline's cash break even level…

Photo: Euronav

Euronav: VLCC Order Book Expands

The challenging freight market during the third quarter came despite some encouraging signs with active scrapping of vessels returning (nine VLCCs scrapped plus one removed from fleet for FPSO project; six Suezmax scrapped during the third quarter) incentivized by a steel price at near three-year highs, says Euronav NV. This was supported by continued upgrades to crude oil demand with the IEA raising its forecast for 2017 from 1.2 mbpd to 1.6 mbpd over the course of the third quarter and U.S. crude exports again making further progress to record on average 933k bpd for the third quarter.

© Jordi de Rueda / Adobe Stock

India's Oil Imports Hit Record High in September

India imported a record 4.83 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil in September as several refiners resumed operations after extensive maintenance to meet rising local fuel demand. The world's third-biggest oil importer shipped in 10 percent more oil last month than a year earlier and about 19 percent more than in the previous month, ship-tracking data from industry sources and Thomson Reuters Analytics showed. "There was heavy maintenance at some refineries in July-August. All those refineries have come online…

Glencore Sees Record Oil Trading Volumes as Margins Shrink

Glencore looks set to cement its position as the world's second-largest oil trader as it tries to offset low volatility and tight margins with record volumes this year, its global head of oil, Alex Beard, told Reuters. The London-listed commodities trader and miner will shift around 6 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude and refined product this year, up 25 percent from last year. The figure represents around 6 percent of global supply and only rival Vitol trades more oil, at some 7 million bpd.

d'Amico Bullish on Product Tankers

d'Amico International Shipping believes that the supply-demand balance in the product tanker freight market is improving. The key drivers that should affect the product tanker freight markets are (i) global oil supply (ii) the crude oil price and refinery margins (iii) demand for refined products and (iv) the product tankers fleet growth rate. The International Energy Agency, in its 2017 Oil Market Report (OMR), published in March 2017, forecasted annual global demand growth to average 1.2 million b/d…